After months of insisting that he had no plans to devalue
the naira, President Muhammadu Buhari has caved to pressure to change
course;.
A day after the Buhari administration increased the price of the pump
price of fuel by 67%, from N86.5 to N145 a liter, our sources disclosed
that Mr. Buhari has also agreed to
demands by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) that he significantly devalues the Nigerian
currency. Our sources indicated that the naira would be pegged at N290
to one dollar. The current official rate is about N200 to a dollar.
Our sources said Mr. Buhari and his economic team took the decision
to accept the IMF’s terms for funds that the Nigerian government wants
to access to bridge a critical shortfall in revenue occasioned by a
drastic decline in oil revenues..
“The truth is that Nigeria cannot operate without sourcing credit
from the IMF,” said one of our sources, an economic adviser to Mr.
Buhari, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “And the IMF was adamant
that we must devalue before they can discuss extending credit to us,” he
added.
Curiously, administration officials took the decision to devalue the
naira without the input of the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria
(CBN), Godwin Emefiele, another source revealed. “Some of us here [the CBN] are not opposed to
devaluation, given our country’s present circumstances,” the source
said, adding that it was the CBN’s function to pilot Nigeria’s monetary
policies.
One of our sources pointed to the fact that the naira has been
weakened in the parallel market, where it now sells at N360 per dollar.
“The government cannot continue to operate under the illusion that the
naira is stronger than it is. The only problem is that we did not start
early enough to admit to Nigerians how bad the financial outlook was,”
the source added.
The Nigerian economy has been pummeled by falling oil earnings that
have led to a near collapse of the economy. The IMF had long indicated
its readiness to support Nigeria’s economy with credit liquidity but
insisted on Nigeria devaluing its currency. President Buhari had
insisted on numerous occasions, before and after his election, that he
would never devalue the naira.
It is unclear how Mr. Buhari and members of his economic team plan to
justify the about-turn on devaluation and other policy somersaults.
After initially vowing to reduce the price of fuel, the government
yesterday announced a significant hike in fuel price. The administration
also set to announce a 10% increase in value-added tax (VAT), another
indication that the Buhari government was embracing the kind of
liberalization pushed by the IMF.
To compound dwindling oil prices, militants in the oil-rich Niger
Delta region have crippled oil exports substantially after bombing oil
pipelines and issuing threats to oil companies to leave the region.
Last week, several oil companies evacuated essential staff from the
region’s offshore platform leading to a reduction in daily oil outputs
from 2.2 million barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day.
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